There could be as many as 43 million jobs impacted in the next year in the US alone as AI integration gathers pace.
The Inter-American Development Bank has shared an index that predicts how many jobs will be affected by AI in the coming decade.
Speaking of AI’s impact as a new industrial revolution, the index says that 980 million jobs around the world will be affected in some way as AI replaces some roles.
Who Will Be Hit Hardest?
The IDB study has catalogued what it calls “occupational exposure” to AI. It looked at 750 professions and then made predictions for one, five and 10-year timeframes. It also breaks data down by sex and education level.
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The findings reveal that 28% of the global workforce will be impacted in the first year, but this then rises to 38% in five years and 44% in ten years. In Mexico, this equates to 16 million jobs. However, women and less skilled workers will be disproportionately impacted worldwide.
Gender and Education Key Factors
In the US, workers with less education will be harder hit than those with an Associate or Batchelor’s Degree. The safest jobs are held by employees with master’s degrees, a Doctorate or a professional school qualification.
In Mexico, the impact zone is wider with “middle-class jobs” set to be impacted too.
“Women, in the United States as well as Mexico, are more vulnerable on the three timelines that we studied because they hold more office, administrative, service and support jobs that are vulnerable to AI.” – Eric Parrado, chief economist at the IDB and co-author of the index, told El Pais
Parrado also adds that task automation will have an impact on 40% of women, as compared to 38% of men.
Call to Action
Parrado and team say that the findings are a call to action as “AI could exacerbate global inequality,” and he emphasized that the impact will be swift compared to the industrial revolutions of the past.
“These estimates do not directly correspond to job losses, but they do indicate that a large proportion of occupations are vulnerable, and that there is an opportunity to leverage the jobs that will be most affected. We must have a plan for the impact that AI could have.” – Eric Parrado
The IDB Index though isn’t just a harbinger of doom. Parrado says that AI will boost productivity, and we won’t necessarily see mass lay-offs (although some companies including Dell are slimming down now and pointing to AI as a reason). Instead, AI could create new job opportunities, so we might face a period of “readjustment in the job markets.”
“We recommend a significant investment in education and re-training programs that should focus on developing skills that are complementary to AI, such as in areas of critical thinking, creativity and emotional intelligence.” – Eric Parrado
In April, the President’s Executive Office released a report about increasing AI capacity across the Federal Government called the National AI Talent Surge. It has also published an analysis of “AI-vulnerable occupations” in which it warns that we are already seeing AI having an impact.
The vulnerable roles “correspond to roughly 10% of overall employment in the economy,” it explains. “And, these occupations are already showing some signs of decreasing demand, such as slower employment growth and fewer incoming workers.”
The Council of Economic Advisers will continue to monitor and analyze, the report says; but the IDB, among others, suggest re-education and re-training are needed now.
