Sigh of relief? Calm before the storm? Those are among the questions supply chain and logistics leaders are contending with as they face reduced China tariffs over the next two and a half months.
This month, the U.S. and China agreed to lower tariffs on imported goods from China to 30%, down from 145% enacted in April. The lower tariffs are in effect for 90 days as the two countries work to hammer out a deal.
What does the pause mean for global supply chains and domestic trucking companies? We spoke to logistics experts to find out.
The Previous Impact of the Tariffs
Ahead of the 145% tariffs on imports from China, businesses ramped up orders in hopes that freight would arrive to the U.S. before higher duties took effect. At the Port of Los Angeles, loaded imports rose 5% year over year in April, and the Port of Long Beach saw a 15% jump in loaded imports that month. But that quickly reversed course as the high tariffs came into force. Inbound shipments to the Port of Los Angeles dropped 30% in early May.
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The up and down of freight volumes at the ports affects not only drayage trucking firms but also fleets transporting freight inland to their next destination in the supply chain. When volumes are up, there’s more business, but also more port congestion and a need for greater capacity. But when volumes plummet, the results can devastate the trucking industry.
“Businesses built around drayage, port and cross-border freight now face closures,” Jeff Hickson, manager of capacity at 3PL RJ Logistics, told The Inside Lane.
In a Tech.co survey conducted before the pause was announced, 77% of companies said the tariffs had caused at least some degree of change in their operations.
The tariffs compound with a long enduring freight recession that the U.S. trucking industry has been experiencing.
“Tariffs on America’s trade partners have the potential to inhibit the recovery from a freight recession that has been acutely felt by America’s small-business truckers,” a spokesperson for the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association
The 145% duty was also a big financial headwind for some importers. Jennifer Coulter-Lissman, president and CEO of NTG Supply Chain Solutions, recalled a client who had to pay an additional $2 million just in the month of April due to the increased duties.
How are Shippers Reacting to the 90-Day Pause?
Some businesses breathed a sigh of relief upon learning that the high tariff rate had been paused for 90 days, but others felt the situation was almost worse, putting them on edge and adding to the uncertainty that has surrounded global trade for the past several months.
“There’s still such a level of unpredictability. Our client base has said, ‘it’s nice, but what’s next?’” – Coulter-Lissman, president and CEO of NTG Supply Chain Solutions
Coulter-Lissman said retailers are treating the temporary tariff reduction like goods being on clearance. They’re ordering as much as possible and stocking up on inventory now at a lower duty rate, leading to a surge of freight coming into the U.S.
In fact, in the week that the U.S. and China agreed to pause tariffs, bookings on container ships from China to the U.S. doubled over the previous week.
Jonathan Hughes, national managing principal of management consulting at advisory firm BDO USA, said shippers are looking even more carefully at scenario planning. They’re assigning probabilities to the likelihoods of various scenarios three, six and 12 months out, and analyzing the costs and benefits of each of those to make decisions about their supply chains.
What’s the Ripple Effect on Freight, Ports and Trucking?
Hughes described the supply chain like a water balloon – when there’s pressure on one part, the water shifts from one area to another. That same scenario is playing out now, with demand spikes from importers rippling to container shipping, U.S. ports and eventually trucking.
“You’ve got that likely significant bottleneck impact in logistics, from shipping all the way through trucking,” Hughes said.
Ocean carriers are readjusting their capacity in light of the tariff pause and an uptick in new bookings. Before, with the higher tariff rate, carriers had shifted some of their empty containers and vessels to other lanes as China-U.S. demand dropped, according to Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos.
“So while those are being moved back into position, there may also be some capacity restraints that could also contribute to upward pressure on freight rates together with increased demand,” Levine said.
Levine said ocean carriers already announced rate increases of as much as $3,000 per container.
“Rates are very likely to increase significantly soon as demand picks up,” – Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos
Peak season in ocean shipping typically begins in July, but Coulter-Lissman sees ocean lines “taking advantage of the surge” and implementing peak season surcharges earlier, starting June 1.
Once those ships from China begin arriving to U.S. West Coast ports, Coulter-Lissman expects “pretty heavy congestion,” which could create equipment issues for trucking companies, such as an imbalance or shortage of chassis.
Jim McCullen, chief technology officer at Century Supply Chain Solutions, said short-haul carriers may need to increase their capacity without much notice nor time to plan. Port drayage lanes could be strained as volume and demand suddenly surge.
Overall, McCullen anticipates a short-term volume spike for ports and logistics, “but it’s a false peak.”
While the 90-day pause could temporarily help by bringing in volume and more business, it distorts the ability to plan capacity longer term.
“Trucking companies risk overcommitting resources if they treat this like sustainable growth,” McCullen said.
The pause only adds to the uncertainty transport leaders have felt since the imposition of higher China tariffs. The Tech.co survey revealed logistics companies were split on whether to anticipate reduced demand, with 40% preparing for lower demand, but 39% not preparing, and the remaining 21% responding, “I’m not sure.”
What Should Trucking Firms do to Navigate this Uncertain Period?
McCullen advised that trucking firms remain aware that the short-term boost in freight may not indicate longer-term trends in volume.
“This is not the time to scale—it’s the time to optimize,” he said.
His tips for fleets:
- Watch your margins.
- Lock in your most reliable lanes.
- Prioritize shippers with predictable flows.
- Strengthen upstream visibility. Coordinate closely with origin cargo managers to understand what’s coming—not just what’s landed.
- Be proactive. By the time cargo hits the port, it’s already too late to reroute efficiently.
The fleets that don’t use these strategies “will be scrambling to correct overextensions made during the rush,” McCullen said.
Hickson similarly advised building relationships rather than chasing dollars. Small business trucking firms, in particular, could align with a broker that offers more consistent volume and stability on critical lanes.
“Strong partnerships, not short-term gains, are what sustain success through market cycles,” Hickson said.
What Happens When the 90-Day Tariff Pause is Up?
It’s anyone’s guess what will happen on the trade policy front once the China tariff pause ends. One possibility is that the pause and lower tariff rate could be extended. That could result in importers slowing their purchase orders to more normalized levels, and thereby moderating freight volumes for truckers, McCullen said.
Another scenario is that the trade negotiations don’t yield progress and the tariffs spike back up to 145%. That could lead to port volumes falling quickly and sharply after the pause.
“For trucking, that means feast and famine: overbooked weeks now, idle chassis later,” McCullen said. “Trucking will feel the hangover from this artificial surge.”
The overall volatility and unpredictability around tariffs will also drive business leaders to rethink their supply chain strategies. Moving entirely out of China is unlikely, as many suppliers and industries are now concentrated there, and the country has developed a ”very large and highly skilled manufacturing workforce,” Hughes said.
But since the first Trump administration and ensuing tariffs, companies have worked on diversifying their supplier network, shifting to places such as India, Vietnam and other locations in Southeast Asia. Costs have been rising in China irrespective of tariffs, Hughes said, and importers have sought options to reduce reliance on China.
For now, businesses in all aspects of the supply chain have to focus on what they know is true and do their best to employ strategies that make them agile and resilient, Hughes said.
“It’s just a lot of shaking that crystal ball,” Coulter-Lissman said. “It’s too hard to see into the future of this administration.”
