Researchers at cutting-edge AI startup Anthropic revealed on a podcast that AI could automate white-collar jobs in the next two to five years, a sentiment that has been shared by CEO Dario Amodei in recent interviews.
Amodei has also warned the government and businesses that inaction and a lack of truth-telling on AI’s potential could see a lot of changes in the rate of unemployment.
In the wake of AI’s potential, there have been plenty of major tech companies announcing layoffs, including cybersecurity powerhouse CrowdStrike and Microsoft. However, while businesses should anticipate and prepare for changes in the workforce, a sense of urgency is not necessarily the right anecdote, based on the mixed findings of AI’s current workplace potential.
‘Pretty Terrible Decade’ In Store As AI Automates White-Collar Jobs, Says Anthropic Researchers
Researchers Sholto Douglas and Trenton Bricken, both at AI startup Anthropic, have hypothesized that AI could soon automate all white-collar jobs, provided companies have “the right kinds of data”. Speaking with podcaster Dwarkesh Patel, Douglas predicted a “drop in white-collar workers” over the next two to five years as a result of the technology, even if current AI progress slows down.
Bricken agreed with his colleague, and confirmed the five-year timeline. The prediction comes as many workers and businesses anticipate being affected by AI, particularly as developments continue to move at a rapid pace.
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Anthropic has recently rolled out its newest generation of AI-models, Claude Opus 4 and Claude Sonnet 4. Similarly, last month, the company also announced new integrations and a new web search tool for Claude.
Anthropic CEO Echoes Warning of White-Collar Automation and Calls For Action
Echoing his researchers, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei told Axios last month that AI has the potential to wipe out half of all white-collar jobs, rising the unemployment rate to 10-20% in the next five years. These roles include those within technology and finance, and will particularly affect entry-level roles within the industry.
Significantly, Amodei claimed that AI companies and the US government were “sugar-coating” the potential affects of AI and automation on unemployment, and has called for more transparency on the subject from these institutions. Ironically, Amodei claims he wants to protect and prepare the nation from the technology he is rapidly advancing, and predicts could change society overnight.
“Cancer is cured, the economy grows at 10% a year, the budget is balanced – and 20% of people don’t have jobs.” Possible AI-related scenario from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei
Amodei’s public appearances as of late have come with similar messages of AI-related doom and calls to action. Last month, speaking to CNN, the CEO expressed the same threat to entry level white-collar roles.
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang has also said that every job is expected to be impacted by AI, however, that workers are more likely to be replaced by AI-proficient colleagues, rather than automation.
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Anthropic is one of the world’s most powerful creators of AI, and it must be said that these kind of comments and warnings come with their own set of benefits. Upscaling the potential of Anthropic’s product line by warning about how powerful it could be, may make people more likely to invest in the new tech. As an aside, Axios revealed in their interview with Amodei that he’d preached his warnings just after spending the day boasting about Claude’s new capabilities.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that Amodei’s claims, or those of his researchers, are completely wrong. AI is being used in the workplace, and recent studies have also shown that it is shrinking entry-level tech jobs.
However, there have also been instances of workplace AI not living up to the fear in its name. A previous study deemed a company consisting entirely of AI agents as a failure, and another study showed that AI could even be creating more work for employees. Swedish fintech company Klarna also recently reversed an AI overhaul of its customer services, due to reports of poor quality and dissatisfied customers.
