November 8, 2014
The Tech world evolves at a fast pace, probably being the fastest market in the world. If we think that, 50 years ago, the Internet was not much more than a dream and, nowadays, the businesses linked to it are making millionaires on a daily basis, we can see that it really progressed at an amazing rhythm, most likely beyond what anyone could have imagined.
By taking a look at the latest tech news, one might see that some products are under the spotlight, while others tend to be put aside and, ultimately, forgotten. With this on mind, it is possible to establish a prediction on what will be a trend somewhere in the next ten years.
Gartner did a very interesting map, the “Gartner's 2014 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies”, that tries to predict what niches under the tech market are more expected in the years to come, which can be extremely helpful in this quest. On the top of the curve, meaning the “peak of inflated expectations”, we can find 9 different niches, all of them expected to reach their potential in the next 5 to 10 years: smart advisors, autonomous vehicles, speech-to-speech translation, internet of things, natural-language question answering, wearable user interfaces, consumer 3D printing, cryptocurrencies and complex-event processing.
This data is actually in consonance to what we uncover from reading the news, something that makes total sense: things under the spotlight right now will, most likely, be further developed in the next decade. According to the same map, there are two technologies that will reach the plateau (this is, the time where they become widely adopted) in less than two years: speech recognition and in-memory analytics.
On the other side of the table, there are some technologies that should not reach wide adoption in the next decade. They are bioacoustic sensing, brain-computer interface, human augmentation, quantum computing, volumetric and holographic displays, and neurobusiness.
If it is true that the new enterprise world is becoming more and more difficult to get and be on, then entrepreneurs should really pay attention to data like this, in order to make the best possible choices taking into account what the future will bring. The tech market is always getting more competitive and, in the (near) future, not only the technologies will change: workers and managers will need to change as well, or they risk loosing that rollercoaster.
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